Cen­ter for Eco­nomic and Pol­icy Research: Haiti Relief and Recon­struc­tion Watch Blog

While most of the media – from news wires, papers, and TV and radio broad­casts, to enter­tain­ment and gos­sip pro­grams and blogs – focused on musi­cian Wyclef Jean’s announce­ment that he would run for pres­i­dent of Haiti, numer­ous other, less well-known (out­side of Haiti, any­way) can­di­dates entered the pres­i­den­tial race, lit­tle noticed by the press.

A Miami Her­ald arti­cle over the week­end described the entry of 34 can­di­dates, who include Jacques Edouard Alexis, the Prime Min­is­ter who was ousted in 2008 dur­ing the food price spike; Jude Celestin, “founder and exec­u­tive direc­tor of the government’s road-building out­fit, the National Cen­ter of Equip­ment” on the INITE ticket; for­mer first-lady Mir­lande Mani­gat, (the wife of for­mer pup­pet pres­i­dent and anti-Aristide activist Leslie Mani­gat); and Yvon Nep­tune, for­mer prime min­is­ter who was ousted from his office in the 2004 coup d’etat against Pres­i­dent Aris­tide, and later impris­oned on bogus charges relat­ing to a “mas­sacre” (sup­pos­edly state-sanctioned) that never took place. Per­haps because the Pro­vi­sional Elec­toral Coun­cil (CEP) is con­tin­u­ing to arbi­trar­ily keep Aristide’s party, Fanmi Lavalas (FL), and 14 other par­ties off the bal­lot as the Novem­ber elec­tions draw near, Nep­tune has announced he will run as the can­di­date for the Haitians for Haiti Party.
As we’ve men­tioned sev­eral times already, the CEP has acted as a new polit­i­cal guardian of the elec­toral process in Haiti, bar­ring FL and these other par­ties from sen­a­to­r­ial elec­tions last year and con­tin­u­ing, despite the many months that have gone by in which the Coun­cil could have worked with the polit­i­cal par­ties to resolve any “tech­ni­cal” cri­te­ria that would pre­vent them from run­ning can­di­dates. The CEP may not be done purg­ing can­di­dates from the upcom­ing elec­tions, how­ever, as the Miami Her­ald reports in a sep­a­rate arti­cle today – it has until August 17 to rule on the eli­gi­bil­ity of Jean, Nep­tune, Alexis, and the other indi­vid­ual can­di­dates who have filed:

But while some in the inter­na­tional com­mu­nity are opti­mistic of the increas­ing momen­tum, oth­ers are wait­ing to see if the expected polit­i­cal fall­out from the elec­toral body’s deci­sion on the can­di­dates’ qual­i­fi­ca­tions will plunge an already quake-ravaged Haiti into vio­lence or gov­ern­men­tal crisis.

“This is a very volatile sit­u­a­tion. The eas­i­est thing they can say is ‘You are all can­di­dates.’ But I don’t know if they will do that,” said Robert Fat­ton, a Haiti-born polit­i­cal expert at the Uni­ver­sity of Vir­ginia.
…

Should it accept all or most of the can­di­dates includ­ing Jean, for­mer prime min­is­ters Alexis and Yvon Nep­tune, and Leslie Voltaire, an urban plan­ner and for­mer Aris­tide cab­i­net mem­ber, it will make for a com­pli­cated race where any­one can end up the winner.

Well, prob­a­bly not “any­one”, but it cer­tainly would make it harder to pre­dict, and the Her­ald is right to not to indulge in unjus­ti­fied spec­u­la­tion here – as other writ­ers have – that Jean or other can­di­dates would be obvi­ous elec­toral favorites. News arti­cles have referred, for exam­ple, to Jean’s abil­ity to “gal­va­nize youth par­tic­i­pa­tion” with­out cit­ing evi­dence, never mind that many of Haiti’s youth are too young to vote. Even if reporters have talked to some eli­gi­ble vot­ers in Port-au-Prince who who say they would vote for Jean, there are many oth­ers who are not enthu­si­as­tic about his can­di­dacy, and how many fans Jean has in the coun­try­side is yet another mat­ter. It would not be the first time that for­eign media have jumped to con­clu­sions, with lit­tle evi­dence, regard­ing the pop­u­lar­ity of pres­i­den­tial can­di­dates in Haiti. In the run-up to the 2006 elec­tions, news out­lets devoted a good deal of atten­tion to can­di­dates – such as busi­ness­man elite Charles Baker and for­mer death squad leader and wanted drug crim­i­nal Guy Philippe — who should have been con­sid­ered long shots (they ended up with 8 per­cent and less than 2 per­cent of the vote, respectively).

The Her­ald goes on to men­tion the legal cri­te­ria that the CEP is sup­posed to consider:

At issue are the seven con­sti­tu­tional require­ments one must meet to run for pres­i­dent of Haiti, and how the CEP will decide who among the hope­fuls meet them. Will it lean on the side of a legal inter­pre­ta­tion, or polit­i­cal influ­ence in its decision-making as it deter­mines the fate of some of the most high-profile can­di­dates, sev­eral of whom face legal ques­tions about their qual­i­fi­ca­tions to run?
…

Alexis risks pos­si­ble dis­qual­i­fi­ca­tion due to his party, Mobi­liza­tion for the Progress of Haiti.
MPH was founded by Samir Mourra, a Hait­ian Amer­i­can, who has opposed every admin­is­tra­tion Alexis served in and who was barred from run­ning for pres­i­dent in 2006 because he held U.S. cit­i­zen­ship. Observers point out that Hait­ian law for­bids non-Haitian cit­i­zens from prac­tic­ing pol­i­tics in the country.

Then there’s the issue of the Hait­ian con­sti­tu­tion’s require­ments that to be eli­gi­ble a pres­i­den­tial can­di­date must “Be the owner in Haiti of at least one real prop­erty and have his habit­ual res­i­dence in the coun­try” and “Have resided in the coun­try for five (5) con­sec­u­tive years before the date of the elec­tions” which could dis­bar sev­eral other can­di­dates. The Her­ald:

Aside from Alexis, the CEP also holds the fate of sev­eral other high-profile can­di­dates as it deter­mines whether they meet the res­i­dency require­ment. Among them are sometime-South Florida res­i­dents Jean, konpa star Michel “Sweet Micky” Martelly and Miami activist Lavarice Gaudin. All have pointed to their Hait­ian pass­ports as proof they do not hold dual nation­al­ity. But their pos­ses­sion of a U.S. green card also raises legal ques­tions about whether they meet the require­ment of con­sec­u­tive five years of res­i­dency in Haiti.

The five-year require­ment has always been inter­preted to mean five years of res­i­dency prior to elec­tion. “Legally, you can­not reside in both coun­tries. Legally, they can­not com­pete,” Fat­ton said. “They have to make up their minds: Are we going to be legal­is­tic and elim­i­nate seven to eight can­di­dates, or be political?

“This is a real mess,” he said. “It’s dif­fi­cult to know what will hap­pen until we have the offi­cial list of candidates.”

The arti­cle cites Mon­fer­rier Dor­val, a law pro­fes­sor at the State Uni­ver­sity of Haiti, as say­ing of the CEP’s loom­ing pro­nounce­ments, “Any deci­sion they take car­ries risk.” It is not clear what risk is posed by the CEP abid­ing by the law and allow­ing for free and fair elec­tions to take place, however.

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/relief-and-reconstruction-watch/haitis-presidential-candidates-not-just-wyclef-and-his-family